Thought of the Day: Why Are My Race Predictors So Far Off?

🧠 Conundrum of the Day, Actually

This morning’s puzzle:

Garmin thinks I can run a sub-2-hour half. Strava says 2:20+. That’s a pretty wide gap. Who’s got the better crystal ball?

One’s using physiology and VO2 max. The other is watching my pacing. Both are helpful, but neither feels quite right.

Garmin watch showing predicted times from 5K to Marathon. — Garmin Race Predictor

Strava app displaying current estimated race times by distance. — Garmin Race Predictor

Naturally, I fed the question to AI.

And in true Plus50Fit fashion, I didn’t stop there. I asked my AI assistant for a Plus50Fit Predictor based on my actual TrainingPeaks metrics — rTSS, IF, Pa:HR, RPE, long-run trends, and more.

🧪 Curious what came out of the lab?

👉 Check out the full comparison here.